» If context is continually changing, aim for incremental progress and let go of perfectionism
» Balance the need for action with the drive to understand both the problem and your biases
» Change is like a sledge stuck in the ice: hard to get moving, but easier to keep moving once freed
» In business, certainty tends to be rewarded, even if artificial
» Beliefs save cognitive effort and so are difficult to dislodge
» The scientific method allows us to constructively try to disprove beliefs
» We can retrain ourselves not to associate uncertainty with negative outcomes
» When designing an experiment to test a hypothesis, ask how might it fail, and what you need to find out
» Luck and uncertainty mean that even good decisions can have a bad outcome (and vice versa)
» Framing our beliefs with a confidence percentage makes us more willing to accept contradictory evidence
» People more easily accept they’re not seeing the whole picture than being told they’re wrong
» Don’t make people feel bad about their beliefs — be kind and connect with them
» Research shows that we interpret words like “we believe” with differing confidence levels
» There is often a lack of discipline when it comes to talking about uncertainty
When we become more worried about risk, four unintended things also tend to happen: bottlenecking, erosion of trust, ossification of process, and a risk appetite that tends towards zero. Here’s what you can do about them.
