PRODUCTHEAD: Exponential growth is a myth
PRODUCTHEAD is a regular newsletter of product management goodness,
curated by Jock Busuttil.
arrest this man / he talks in maths
/ he buzzes like a fridge
every PRODUCTHEAD edition is online for you to refer back to
tl;dr
So-called hypergrowth is quadratic, not exponential (adding a larger fixed amount each year — not multiplying)
Sustainable growth requires new products or built-in virality, not just more marketing
True exponential growth is rare and short-lived
hello
A quick mid-week-ish edition for you today. Normal service will resume on Monday!
When we talk about some of the fastest growing companies and products, we often use breathless terms such as ‘hypergrowth’ or ‘exponential’ or ‘viral’ growth. The long read from Jason Cohen I’d like to share with you today does two things: it debunks the hype over exponential growth (spoiler alert: it’s not actually exponential) and in doing so, provides a more realistic pattern for growth. At the end, Jason suggests tactics for drive the kind of growth your product needs.
As an aside, when Jason talks about layering on staggered marketing campaigns or other growth initiatives to stave off the inevitable deceleration and decline, it reminded me of extension tactics for mature products. Typically these are combinations of repackaging, repricing, rebranding and repositioning the product (often as a budget-friendly or wholesale option). This allows the company to eke out a few more sales before decommissioning the product entirely, and without having to invest heavily in additional development. A succinct description of the concept can be found in this revision guide for teenagers :-)
Speak to you soon,
Jock
what to think about this week
The Elephant in the room: The myth of exponential hypergrowth
Even Facebook and Slack did not grow “exponentially,” as frequently described. Here is the correct model that you can use to understand and affect growth.
This article suggests an alternate model for how fast-growing companies actually grow. Understanding the model is useful not only for predicting growth, but because understanding the foundational drivers of growth allows us to take smarter actions to create growth in our own companies.
A spot of mid-week mathematics
[Jason Cohen / A Smart Bear]
recent posts
Navigating your product management career
Ross Webb and I have been chatting about product management career progression.
We cover topics including:
» Thinking of visibility as a strategic competency, not self-promotion
» Controlling your narrative through regular updates
» Building cross-organisational relationships deliberately
» Mapping your stakeholders’ preferred communication styles
A roundtable chat on moving into product leadership
[I Manage Products]
New technology alone is not the answer
New technology is not going to suddenly make all the challenges facing an organisation disappear overnight. Why? Because more often than not, those challenges are social not technological. Technology alone rarely solves ‘people problems’.
AI is neither a panacea nor a magic bullet just as digital wasn’t for UK gov
[I Manage Products]
What freelance product management is really like with Jock Busuttil
Off the back of his recent article for Mind The Product, Liam Smith interviewed me about my experiences in freelance product management.
We cover topics including:
» Should you hire freelancers in your product team?
» How to be successful as an external hire
+ more :-)
can we help you?
Product People is a product management services company. We can help you through consultancy, training and coaching. Just contact us if you need our help!
Helping people build better products, more successfully, since 2012.
PRODUCTHEAD is a newsletter for product people of all varieties, and is lovingly crafted from enough chocolate to keep us going until Christmas.
Read more from Jock
The Practitioner's Guide To Product Management
by Jock Busuttil
“I wish this book was published when I started out in product management. It gives a really wonderful overview of what product management is and involves on a day to day basis.”
— Keji Adedeji, product leader & coach
Jock Busuttil is a product management and leadership coach, product leader and author. He has spent over two decades working with technology companies to improve their product management practices, from startups to multinationals. In 2012 Jock founded Product People Limited, which provides product management consultancy, coaching and training. Its clients include BBC, University of Cambridge, Ometria, Prolific and the UK’s Ministry of Justice and Government Digital Service (GDS). Jock holds a master’s degree in Classics from the University of Cambridge. He is the author of the popular book The Practitioner’s Guide To Product Management, which was published in January 2015 by Grand Central Publishing in the US and Piatkus in the UK. He writes the blog I Manage Products and weekly product management newsletter PRODUCTHEAD. You can find him on Mastodon, X (formerly Twitter) and LinkedIn.